Phosphorus reserves depletion, concentration in a single geolocation, and the likelihood of weaponization for geopolitics: a scenario analysis

Abstract

One of the most serious issues that humanity will confront in the future is the depletion and concentration of phosphorus in a single geographical location. It is the most limiting and critical element for food production, with no natural alternatives. Because most soils are phosphorus deficient, intensive application of phosphate-based fertilizers is mandatory to boost agricultural productivity on limited farmland. More phosphorus in the form of fertilizers is needed to produce enough food to feed the booming global population; yet, much of it is lost to streams, causing eutrophication. Besides, phosphorus for fertilizer production is sourced from reserves that were predicted to deplete in less than thirty decades, with resources first concentrated in North Africa. The study aimed to examine and forecast the future reserve depletion, distribution, and the likelihood of using phosphorus as a geo-political instrument, based on the assumption that the scarcer and more unevenly distributed the resource, the more desirable it is for political weaponization. Phosphorus depletion time was calculated using the static reserve-to-production (R/P) ratio, and future resource trends were projected under varied scenarios from 2023 to 2220 using time series analysis. The study found that on average, the global reserves will take 300-400 years to deplete, while that of China and the United States reserves will be depleted by 265 and 2073, respectively. By 2100, a substantial portion of the reserves will be in North Africa, accounting for around 95% of global phosphorus reserves. In this sense North Africa will dominate the phosphorus market, making it more oligopolistic. Given its importance to survival, North Africa, like any other resource-rich country, is likely to exploit phosphorous as a geopolitical weapon, especially during times of intense resource competition